About 2.1 million people in eastern, northern and northeastern Uganda are currently food insecure due to the impacts of floods in 2007, civil insecurity and displacements, and three consecutive seasons of poor agricultural performance, respectively (Figure 1). Food security in the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda (Abim, Kaabong, Kotido, Moroto and Nakapiripirit Districts) continues to decline. About 707,000 people (or nearly 80 percent of the region's total population) are currently moderately to highly food insecure due to depleted food stocks, low livestock production, and poor livestock/cereal terms of trade.
In the most-likely scenario from October to December 2008, food security will improve slightly, with the number of food insecure decreasing to 1.7 million people. Food security conditions will remain stable in bimodal areas due to expected average second‐season food harvests and increased food availability beginning in November. Conditions for households in flood‐affected eastern districts will improve due to first‐season harvests (June to August), off‐farm food sources, and limited income opportunities. Sustained civil security and first‐season harvests will also help improve the food security situation in northern Uganda. In Karamoja, the situation will continue to deteriorate, with hunger becoming more intense and widespread as a result of a poor September‐November 2008 harvest. Even more of the 707,000 people requiring assistance will be highly food insecure in this scenario.
In the worst‐case scenario from October to December, a resurgence in civil insecurity, displacements, and a poor second‐season harvest in the north will coincide with increased civil insecurity in Karamoja (livestock thefts, road ambushes) and below‐normal production in the east to cause a higher prevalence of and more severe hunger affecting at least 2.2 million people in these areas.
