- Food security is expected to remain stable (Figure 1) until February 2008 in most unimodal areas, following above-average harvests of short- cycle (May to July) crops, such as sorghum, maize, groundnuts, and sesame.
- The 2007 FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment results indicate 90,000 households and 56,000 hectares of land were affected by floods, though areas most affected – such as the Nile- Sobat and Eastern Flood Plains livelihoods zones (Figure 2) – are expected to be able to compensate for crop losses through flood recession activities such as fishing, agriculture, and harvesting of wild foods. The recession of floods will also allow for abundant water and pasture availability, thereby increasing milk production.
- However, parts of the Eastern Flood Plains, including Nyirol, Watt, Diror, Akobo, and Wurar counties, face multiple challenges, their resilience, including a combination of crop losses due to floods, insufficient access to markets, and inter- clan tensions and cattle rustling, making populations in these areas particularly vulnerable to food insecurity.
- About 372,000 returnees are expected to return to Southern Sudan in 2008, raising concerns about whether current quantities of food are sufficient to meet their resettlement needs. Most repatriations are anticipated to occur between now and April, before the onset of rains and at a time when carryover harvests are dwindling.
Seasonal progress
Rainfall in bimodal areas (March to April and July to October) of the Greenbelt zone was largely above normal, and long-cycle sorghum planted in this area is now being harvested. Similarly, in unimodal areas, most of which lie within the Ironstone Plateau zone, rainfall started earlier than usual and remained consistent and above- normal throughout the season. These rains resulted in heavy flooding that destroyed crops, particularly those in the lowlands of this unimodal zone. Quick- maturing plants (sorghum, maize, and vegetables) that were not adversely affected by flooding were harvested in September and October, and long- cycle sorghum harvests in this zone and in parts of the Western and Eastern Flood Plains zones started in December and are still ongoing. In flood- affected areas, flood- recession activities, including fishing and planting of flood- recession and cash crops have begun. Fishing in a number of places is at its peak, which will help to compensate for crop losses. Planting of cash crops, such as tobacco and vegetables, is also in progress in these areas.
Widespread flooding initially limited grazing land for livestock. However, as floods recede, grass availability is increasing. In the highlands, however, which - were not affected by floods – the onset of the dry season is decreasing pasture availability, and scarcity of grazing grass is now evident, with some cattle being relocated to the toich (wetlands) in Gogrial Tonj and Aweil West counties. Movement of the Atwot pastoral tribe from the Western Flood Plains to the Ironstone Plateau zone in search for good grazing land was also reported in January.
As flood waters continue to recede, and as second season harvests continue in bimodal areas, it will be important to monitor the following in the first quarter of 2008:
- Performance of second- season harvests in bimodal cropping areas;
- Contribution of flood recession activities to food access;
- Impacts of civil insecurity, particularly along the border between northern and southern Sudan, and that related to cattle rustling;
- Status of population returns to southern Sudan and their impacts on and influence over the April 2008 census;
- Impacts of continued conflict in Kenya on food availability and access in South Sudan.